Working Papers

KERIC2025

Low fertility is a pressing concern in many advanced economies, particularly those where gender gaps in work and caregiving persist. Recent research highlights that fertility increasingly depends on whether men can credibly share childcare responsibilities. This paper examines whether mandating paternity leave can raise fertility by institutionalizing fathers’ caregiving. We study a 2017 company-wide mandate at a large South Korean conglomerate requiring all male employees to take one month of fully paid paternity leave. Using newly linked administrative data and an event-study design, we find that the mandate sharply increased leave uptake, lengthened leave durations, and generated spillovers among fathers not directly subject to the policy. The probability of having a child rose by about 15 percent, with the largest effects among dual-earner couples and those with higher-earning, longer-tenured wives. Wives’ employment remained stable, indicating that fertility gains did not come at the cost of women’s careers. Complementary survey evidence shows more supportive workplace norms toward fathers’ leave-taking and greater paternal involvement in childcare at treated firms. These findings demonstrate that mandating short paternal leave can normalize fathers’ caregiving and promote fertility without undermining women’s employment.

WCES2025, PAA2025

While existing literature highlights the career costs of childbearing as a potential contributor to low fertility in high-income countries, few empirical studies investigate how women form beliefs about these costs and whether such beliefs shape their fertility decisions. Using a sample of South Korean female workers aged 19 to 40 years, we conduct an online survey to examine the relationship between the individuals' beliefs about the career costs of children and their family formation plans. We also execute an information provision experiment to assess how objective information about the likelihood of women working post-childbirth leads to changes in beliefs and family formation plans. We find that female respondents hold pessimistic expectations about their own post-childbirth employment, partly because they underestimate the extent to which mothers in Korea remain in the workforce. These pessimistic beliefs are strongly associated with lower fertility and marriage intentions, particularly among women with strong current career prospects and higher incomes. Information provision leads to only modest changes in intentions, as many respondents interpret higher maternal employment as reflecting financial necessity rather than improved work–family compatibility. Overall, the study underscores the importance of beliefs—and their interpretation—in shaping family formation decisions.

This paper examines how unconditional income support affects labor supply decisions among financially dependent young adults. We study a universal cash transfer program in Seongnam, South Korea, which provided 1 million KRW (about 19.1% of annual earnings) in quarterly payments to all 24-year-olds for one year. Using administrative panel data and a difference-in-differences design, we compare eligible youth in Seongnam with those in nearby cities not exposed to the program. In the short run, the transfer lowered the probability of holding a job by 0.8 percentage points from a 32% baseline and reduced quarterly earnings by about 2%, driven mainly by reduced participation in part-time work. The implied labor-supply elasticity with respect to individual earnings is –0.12. These effects fade once payments end, and we detect no differences in employment or total earnings in the three years after the transfer period, aside from a negligible carryover in job tenure. Overall, the program induces a temporary income effect without lasting impacts on early-career labor-market outcomes.

Family-Friendly Firms and the Motherhood Penalty (with Jungmin Lee and Hyunseung Lee) (Draft coming soon!) slides

Do workplace amenities mitigate the motherhood penalty? Linking matched employer–employee administrative data with hand-collected information on workplace amenities for 962 Korean firms, we document substantial heterogeneity in motherhood penalties across companies. We find that women initially employed at family-friendly firms are more likely to remain in the labor market after childbirth, while those at less supportive firms tend to exit rather than switch to more accommodating employers. Using a machine learning–based causal forest approach, we further show that flexible work arrangements, onsite childcare, and remote work options are the amenities most strongly associated with smaller post-birth declines in employment and earnings. These findings highlight the importance of workplace institutions that enable work–family compatibility in retaining female talent and narrowing gender gaps in career progression.

Research in Progress